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V Reagan on tax: Who knows? If White House spokesman Larry /\ Speakes can't resolve the dilemma Presi- v /• • 4_ dent Reagan and Vice President George \/|©\A/DOin U Ruoh />rAatoH tt\r thorn cat VAC thic u/oak . I Bush created for themselves this week over tax increases, then who can? After Reagan and Bush contradicted each other Monday on the hot issue of the 1984 campaign — whether there will be any tax increases needed next year — Speakes fell back on his standard comment in such situations: \The president said what he meant and meant what he said/ 1 When reporters persisted, with the potential of giving Democratic presiden- tial nominee Mondale another week's worth of ammunition, Speakes shrugged them off: \He's the great communicator and you're the great interpreters and you may each play your roles.\ However, nobody in the Republican Par- ty seems to be communicating very well on this key issue. The ReaganJugh command was thrown off balance by Mondale's acceptance speech declaration that the next president will raise taxes but that Reagan would not be honest about it. But as soon as the GOP strategists licked their chops at the pro- spect of campaigning against a tax in- t crease, they started choking on it. At a news conference, Reagan said he would not raise taxes then clarified the statement that tax hikes may, indeed, be necessary as a /'last resort\ if federal spending ftkcut to the bone and the deficit remains oi)t of hand. But two days before that, the president made a hard-hitting radio speech that said he would propose no new personal income taxes and would veto any bill that raises personal tax rates. Reagan seems to have refined the issue clearly as one of no new personal income taxes, a possible decrease and, in any event, the possibility of closing loopholes and imposing selective business taxes. But his breezy deflection of the tax issue and his evasions of specific questions on tax policy produce only more questions. We hope Reagan can make up his mind before the November election. American voters would like to know before they step into the voting machine. PolitiScope Church-state relations What the market says NEW YORK - Keynes once described investing in the stock market as \anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be/' A huge amount of that kind of second guessing went into the record surge of last week. But betting on how other bet- tors will bet is by its very nature a reversible process of ups and downs. Since general political and economic conditions are now By JOSEPH KRAFT the competition. There are no heroes among money managers. As a matter of self-defense, they all tend to turn over in bed at the same time. The herd instinct has been institutionalized. The result is the second outstanding number. In two days — Aug. 2 and Aug. 3 — the Dow Jones average shot up 67 points. For the week ending Aug. 3, the gain was 87 points. A move of that size constitutes a full-scale full of uncertainty,*the steep rise rally all by itself. So the profes- of last week t* mainly a sign of sional managers, moving in a extreme volatility. herd with computer-like efficien- Two numbers stand out in the cy, impart great velocity to ups market rush during the early and downs. Markets have days of August. First there was become highly volatile. the amount of trading. Volume on Aug. 3 was 236 million shares — almost 60 million shares higher than the record set the day before. It was less than two years ago that volume exceeded 300 million shares for the first time in history. Technology explains some of the dizzying rise in financial business. Almost instantaneous global communications make it The latest signal for a simultaneous move by so many of the money managers was testimony to the Senate Banking Committee by Chairman Paul Volcker of the Federal Reserve Board on July 25. Volcker ex- pressed the belief that inflation would stay low for the rest of the year and that the Fed would pro- bably not be obliged to slow down the economy by raising interest country experienced such pro- nounced foreign trade deficits. Moreover, it is not as though these conditions are due to change soon. The one clear con- sequence of the presidential campaign to date is that it has made cutting ihe deficits-harder. President Reagan has set his face against a big increase in the persona] income tax. That means he will have to explore the possibility of big spending cuts or new kinds of taxes. Even if novel approaches prove feasible, which is doubtful, they will take time. Given the opposition to cuts in social spending, the probabili- ty is that a couple of years will be taken up in experiments before the country returns to the usual device of raising taxes to close the deficits. The Democrats, to be sure, By WILLIAM STEVENS ALBANY, N.Y. (UPI) - \Gentlemen if you want to get along in thus man's army, there are two things you won't talk about. Religion and the Civil War.\ Delivered in a southern drawl and raspy voice that betrayed years of NCO club whiskey, that message from a training sergeant at an Air Force base in Texas came back to me the other day almost 35 years after I first heard it. It came back to me because an awful lot of people are saying much the same thing about Gov, Mario Cuomo's somewhat uneasy foray into the political minefield of church-state rela- tions. Well, the sergeant (I can't remember his name, just his menace) was right for his time and reason, which primarily was to prevent a group of unsure, 18- year-old basic trainees from bashing each other during such \dialogue*.\ By like token, the governor would appear to be right, for political reasons at least, in try- ing to establish what he euphemistically refers to as a dialogue between government and religious leaders. By way of background, New how a Catholic could vote for a politician who condoned abor- tion. While O'Connor did not specifically mention Cuomo, his comment could apply to the governor — a Catholic who has said he is personally opposed to abortion but will not try to im- pose that belief on everyone. Cuomo defended the right of Catholic politicians such as himself and Democratic vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro to support governmental policies that are not backed by the church. Last week, the archbishop said it was not his duty to assess political candidates. Cuomo said he was \gratified 1 ' by the state- ment. - One thing that has become he wants to blunt that perception. Cuomo obviously recognizes that a political trip to ,a taboo land such as religion is fraught with danger, and he says he's not keeping the pot boiling — it's other people who keep talking about it. Responding to a question about why religion and church-state relations seem to be intruding in- to the presidential campaign, Cuomo said this week: \It was President Reagan go- ing to New Jersey and eating spaghetti and staying with (singer Frank) Sinatra and hav- ing an archbishop, or a bishop in robes, in a church in St. Ann's, saying Til show you Italian Catholic. This is Italian Catholic!' \(It was) Geraldine Ferraro clear in Cuomo's steady march talking about Christianity. to national political stardom is that the Democratic governor has a better batting eye than Ted Williams when it comes to spot- ting a developing populist trend. Not being blessed with the same vision, I can only surmise that what the governor sees is President Reagan and, by linkage, the Republican Party, assuming the m&ntle of moral It wasn't me, I was here min- ding my own business.\ The governor got his laugh and now is in the position of having his stance on state-church rela- tions become a part of folk lore, in which people will remember that he said something about it, even if nobody is quite sure what it was. Having sown the seed by might win the election, and Fritz York Archbishop John O'Connor possible for investors all over the rates. Since many eminent finan- ... _- - - »« v _•__.______?___.*__.•_. -world to participate in market operations round the clock. Elec- tronic data processing equip* ment enables brokerage firms and exchanges to handle many times the number of transactions they could previously ac- commodate. As Professor James Tobin of Yale noted in his recent Hirsch lecture, on which much of this analysis depends, \the im- mense power of the computer\ has been \harnessed to balloon the quantity ... of financial ex- changes.\ Equally important is the development of huge pools of cial gurus had been pessimistic about inflation, the managers had been holding back from stocks in favor of investments that rise with inflation. Once assured that interest rates would hold for a while, they plunged en masse into the stock market. But there is no likelihood that conditions apt to prevail between now and the election, say, will last long thereafter. On the con- trary, the political and economic outlook in this country has rarely been more uncertain. For the country is on uncharted seas. Never before in peacetime has Mondale has promised a tax in- crease. That straight talk has put Reagan on the defensive, and in a couple of taut debates Mondale could expose the president's in- tellectual shallowness. But to win the nomination Mondale promis- ed significant rises for such items as education, food stamps and industrial policy. Even if taxes are raised, deficits will persist, and with them the deep uncertainty that characterizes the economic and political outlook. So the optimism that dominates national feeling in economic matters now does not said in June that he did not see leadership in the eyes of the na- discussing the issue, Cuomo has tion. plenty of time to see what plants Such a public view eventually will grow, could be politically fatal to a ••• liberal Democrat, who also hap- Stevens covers state govern- pens to be a Catholic, and the ment for United Press governor can hardly be blamed if International. Is Earl Butts next? WASHINGTON (UPI) - Bert Lance's resignation as Walter Mondale's campaign manager By DICK WEST Not only was Lance closely was up f or ratification stamps associated with Jimmy Carter; her as a perfect foil for Geraldine he had been forced to quit as Ferraro, the Democratic vice points up some of the difficulties federal budget director because presidential candidate. ^ ^ A Mm 2 Jm\ —- ah 4 * A 1 _* A _— «l « j j A^ AA Vh * _ * » jm. • «Mh _ M _ _ _ - . — * _. . ._. __ \ -_ __. _*. —_ V_ _ _ _ —_ * presidential candidates have in rest on a long-range view. What putting together suitable staffs. capital in pension funds and cor- the country had budget deficits of the market says applies only a very short way into the future. Los Angeles Times Syndicate Voice slh of some questionable banking practices. Mondale's own ties with the Carter administration were something some of his other political strategists would just as problems Thus\ far. But soon play dbwn.^But It was felt With the start of the Republican National Convention still a few days off, President Reagan hasn't encountered similar \brc porate and institutional ac- counts. These pools are now managed by sophisticated pro- fessionals who are in open com- petition to outperform each other. When the market starts to move, the last thing any of the professionals can afford is to be caught in a worse position than the magnitude that stretch so far ahead. Never before has it had real interest rates at such high levels in a period of economic recovery. Never since the postwar recovery has the dollar been so buoyant compared to the currencies of the other industrial countries. Ano never nas Letter policy The Press-Republican welcomes letters to the editor from readers. All letters must be signed and should include the address and telephone number of the author. Letters must riot contain mdre than 400 words. They should be typewritten if possible. Those letters not meeting all the criteria will not be published and will be return- ed to the writer. The letters to the editor column is a forum for an ex- rhangf of ideas-an4 commentary .and is not intended tSLlbank in^ dividuals. institutions or organizations. Cheers & Jeers Government REP. DAVID O'B. MARTIN Suite 109 ^ Cannon House Office Building Washington. DC. 20515 Phone: 202-22^4611. SENATOR DANIEL PATRICK MOYNMAN Room SR-464 Russell Senate Office Building Washington, DC. 20510 ?? ? 9l«flA 1 vX nLinWlNr JMx D'AMATO RoomSHS* Hart Senate Office Buiktmg Washington. DC 20510 X2-2244542 his appointment of Anne Burford to head an environmental ad- visory panel indicates there may be trouble down the road. Mrs. Burford, as may have been previously noted elsewhere, did not exactly endear herself to conservationists during her stint as chief of the Environmental Protection Agency Consequently, her new ap- pointment raised eyebrows in Congress and did not set well with environmental groups, It took her withdrawal even before she was sworn in to lower Lhose cyebrOwi* &JQU c&iw restive critics. *• Mondale, the Democratic- presidential jipminee, attracted^ some of the same sort of flack when he named Lance as general manager of his campaign. Meanwhile, Mondale will want someone to coordinate his cam- paign with various political- minded Jewish groups. The likely person for that job clearly is Jesse Jackson. his tapping of Lance would re- mind voters that Mondale was vice president when Carter was As an unsuccessful contender in the White House. f tiie main cn ance, who retains Finding the right person for the j following, Jackson could right job is tough even in the best ivc J boost ^ his erstwhile rival of circumstances. Reagan's g y accep ting an official role in the Mondale campaign. Reagan defense of Mrs. Burford and Mondale's apparent confidence in T^nrp suggests some of the other appointments we may be seeing during the campaign. The logical choice to direct Reagan's re-election bid would be Richard Nixon. In some views, the cir- cxtinstsnxes fcmdtr~wliicu Nixon left the White House were even more cloudy than those attending iJbie depajluxe^frpfD .goyernmenl And what could than propnate man 10 Jewish liaison director? be more make him ap- As for the Republican vice presidential candidate, there has been speculation that Reagan's running mate -wtlf be George Bush. But that is another story. CHEERS — for their devotion to duty, to How may one argue then that seatbelts a pair of recent graduates at Saranac Cen- and their mandatory use are not similarly tral School: Penny La Tour and Lori Miner. They achieved perfect attendance during their four years of high school Added cheers to their parents — Mr. and Mrs. Louis LaTour of Morrison vilie and Mr. and Mrs. John Miner of Cadyville, respectively -=\wBo had much to do with «*- couraging their daughters. JEERS — for ignorance about the scope under government** control? Yes, government has a stake in the health and safety of its citizens. Mandatory use of seatbelts is just one small way by which government chooses to megLjtsihity ••• - JEERS —- #er expediency in the name of politics, to a government that is clear on its principles but inconsistent in the applica- tion of same. through the use of seatbelts. A key reason such a no-ban bill won't pass is because the tobacco lobby is very powerful — jobs will be lost, tax revenues will decline, some politicians will receive fewer contributions and, they fear, far fewer votes. If those who ywtn»>< imly t+rwii p of Mrs. Burford and Lance. Reagan also will need someone to offset the favorable impact that Mondale's choice of a runn- ing mate has made with women's groups. The person whose credentials make her ideally suited for such a task is Phyllis Schlafly. Not only is Mrs. Schlafly a woman herself; her efforts when the Equal Rights Amendment Daily Devotion My soul shall be satisfied ... when I remember thee upon my bed. and meditate on thee in the night wat- ches. There is no way of dispelling ten- sion and insomnia than prayer. There is great medical value in religion. and role of government in modem America The principle is public health and safety, and for inattention to the stated duty of The inconsistency resides in this: federal government to protect its citizens, to those and state governments support mandatory use of seatbelts, but won't outlaw cigaret- tes or smoking. Key reason behind the mandatory seat belt law is to save lives, to reduce the car- nage on our highways. A key reason New York state passed such a law — the first such law in the nation — is because drivers are not organized suffi- ciently to lobby legislators against this kind of government control. A key reason behind a proposed r*> smoking law is to save lives, to reduce the pain in oar nation's hospitals. Many more lives would be saved, by the way than who argue that New York's mandatory seatbelt law somehow short-circuits a per- son's constitutional rights. Government has long exerted control over the nations highways and ail that moves on them. So it does in New York with the law mandating use of seatbelts From speed limits to the %izt of signs, from the composition of the blacktop to the width of the roadway, from annual inspec- tions to licensing of drivers and registra- tion of reticles — all of these are comroiJed by the fovemmem in its role of regulating and maintaining public safety y about public health and safety as they say they are. then let them enact mandatory seatbelt laws. Let them alto enact no- smoking laws. At the very least, let them be consistent in their actions. If the best we can get on i pack of cigarettes is a warning label that smoking is **t T i r 4fHit to health, shouldn't legislators then demand auto makers in- stall a notice in cars that non-use of seatbelts is a hazard. This would be consistency — and the result would be the same lives lost Let us remember the lives lost to em- physema, to lung cancer. Let os remember that non-smokers have a right to clean, non-pocsoooos. safe air. And let us remember that political sur~ vivaL not public safety, is more important to moat of those who nowadays govern Press-Republican Saturday, August 11,1984 Z*~ *<
